Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Jefferson County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Jefferson County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---

# Jefferson County

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Population growth is slowing
- Natural change has been on the decline
- Net migration is still healthy
- No changes made since December

---

# Jefferson at a Glance: 2020 Census

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Jefferson </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24,502 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 34.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.70 (10,250 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Jefferson Employment Changes

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Education and health services Sector Jobs: 540","Year: 2018 County: Jefferson Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 668","Year: 2023 County: Jefferson Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 815"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(219,142,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Education and health services","legendgroup":"Education and health services","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992,1997,2001.7727272727273,2006.7727272727273,2011.7727272727273,2016.7727272727273,2021.7727272727273],"y":[96,106,123,116,111,96,109],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Jefferson Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 96","Year: 1998 County: Jefferson Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 106","Year: 2003 County: Jefferson Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 123","Year: 2008 County: Jefferson Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 116","Year: 2013 County: Jefferson Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 111","Year: 2018 County: Jefferson Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 96","Year: 2023 County: Jefferson Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 109"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial 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and utilities Sector Jobs: 874","Year: 2013 County: Jefferson Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 794","Year: 2018 County: Jefferson Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 870","Year: 2023 County: Jefferson Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 945"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(239,103,235,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","legendgroup":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1995,2000,2005.0454545454545,2010.0454545454545,2015.0454545454545,2020.0454545454545,2025.0454545454545],"y":[85,155,147,187,184,259,210],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Jefferson Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 85","Year: 1998 County: Jefferson Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 155","Year: 2003 County: Jefferson Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 147","Year: 2008 County: Jefferson Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 187","Year: 2013 County: Jefferson Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 184","Year: 2018 County: Jefferson Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 259","Year: 2023 County: Jefferson Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 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---

# Jefferson Migration Flows

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---

# Jefferson Population

.pulll-left[
Jefferson county is expected to growth in the forecast period, albeit at a slower rate then previously observed.
]

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---

# Jefferson Compositional Changes

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-77316ec994c917998f84" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Jefferson Births

.pulll-left[
Births have been on the decline, a trend that is expected to continue through teh forecast period.
]

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<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-f248a8e27c55a5757690" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Jefferson Deaths

.pulll-right[
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---

# Jefferson Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

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Jefferson county is expected to continue to age, leading to a "top-heavy" population structure.
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899","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 842","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 651","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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]

---

# Jefferson Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
The population is expected to continue to diversify, with strong growth seen among the Hispanic population.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-9f922e2bcc6f4317d194" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Jefferson UGB Population Changes

---

# Jefferson UGBs: Culver in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Jefferson_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.61% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.24% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 185 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 275 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 561 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.59% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.36% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.65% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.94 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.16 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.98 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,653 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $31,667 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $81,534 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.24% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 98.70% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Jefferson County: Culver UGB Boundaries

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---

# Culver UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Culver UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Jefferson UGBs: Madras in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Jefferson_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.52% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.94% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 953 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,952 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,878 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.26% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.02% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.50 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.78 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.72 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,489 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,103 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,500 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.57% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.23% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.95% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
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]

---

# Jefferson County: Madras UGB Boundaries

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---

# Madras UGB Pop Forecast

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# Madras UGB Pop Forecast

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# Jefferson UGBs: Metolius in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Jefferson_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.65% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.18% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 150 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 220 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 360 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.27% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.89% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.13 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.97 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.89 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,119 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $32,375 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $68,382 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.37% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.56% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Jefferson County: Metolius UGB Boundaries

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# Metolius UGB Pop Forecast

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# Metolius UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts